Long Term Discipline Wins Over the Long Term... Daily Bets for July 22

I am, admittedly, caught up in the $OPEN stock craze at the moment. Actually did quite well yesterday.

We all look for the short term quick buck, we all want to be rich and stay ahead of the curve. But, with big risks comes losses and we want to build a steady bankroll that gives us the chance to take small bets eventually that are going to pay the bills. For now, we stick with the plan.

Up 48%, 8-6 record, we know it is time in the market, not timing the market.

Staying disciplined and sticking to our +EV strategy for July 22 with two focused plays.

First, we’re backing Van de Zandschulp (+180) at ATP Kitzbuhel with a $2.40 stake — his true win probability (~41%) exceeds the implied (~35%).

The “lock” of the day is the Guardians ML at –120 against the Orioles. Projections favor Cleveland with a ~59% chance to win, compared to the implied ~54.5%, making it our strongest edge.

Edit - at the time of preparing this the line stood at -120, it is now -144 which took off the edge in our favor - this bet is off

Combined, these two plays risk ~4.6% of the bankroll — well within our half‑Kelly discipline — as we continue to build on an 8–6 record and smart, sustainable growth.

Keep growing - one bet at a time.