July 25, 2025 — Underdogs Bite Back

Chase Variance
Jul 25
1 min read

Corentin Moutet was priced like a 1‑in‑4 shot; our model saw a third‑chance. One biting backhand later, and some ugly serving, +310 cashed and the bankroll jumped. Heart Stopping stuff today.

Bankroll Snapshot

Metric	Amount
Starting roll (yesterday)	$147.29
Profit on Moutet +310	+$17.36
Cash balance (after new wagers)	$153.48
Exposure still in play	$11.10
Worst‑case EOD	$153.48
Record	13 – 8

What's left...

Bet	Stake	Odds	EV (%)
Taylor Fritz 2‑1 (exact sets)	$1.00	+240	7.5
Diamondbacks ML @ PIT	$6.45	−113	7.7
White Sox ML vs CHC	$3.65	+152	7.8

We stick to half‑Kelly sizing, so even a full sweep of L’s costs 7 %

Why the Edge Still Matters

Price vs Probability: +EV isn’t about picking winners, it’s about buying overlayed risk. The market shaded Medvedev’s brand name; we priced the matchup, not the resume.
Small > All‑in: Half‑Kelly keeps us solvent when variance bites. A $5.60 swing is noise; the process compounds the edge.
Liquidity discipline: All plays came from high‑handle books; no chasing stale props that vanish with a $20 bet.

Lessons Learned

Trust the model, then verify. Double‑checking against three independent projections kept confirmation bias in check. Also, argued with ChatGPT for a solid 10 minutes on this one.
News matters—but so does context. Medvedev’s post‑match quote about the heat wasn’t priced in yet; that pushed Moutet from lean to green‑light.
Document everything. Paper trails make it easy to spot leaks (or seven‑cent rounding blips).