First Bet in the Blog Era - Toronto Blue Jays -137, $8.25 bet

As I mentioned in my first post, my bankroll has grown to $145.16.

How we got there is a combination of wins and losses.

The current record of bets 5 Wins, 4 Losses (including the epic WNBA debacle (Post here).

Today we are taking the Blue Jays at -137, and betting $8.25 to win $14.27.

Here was the response from ChatGPT when I asked it for lines for the day:

Best +EV Opportunity

Probable Pitchers: Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs. Justin Verlander (SF)
Line: Blue Jays ~–134 (implied ≈57.6%) The Crawfish Boxes+4ESPN.com+4MLB.com+4MLB.com+3FanDuel+3baseballsavant.com+3
True Probability Estimate: ~62–64%
- Bassitt has been strong lately, especially at home on a traveler-advantaged mound
- Verlander is older and prone to giving up more runs this year — his implied value is overstated
Expected Value: ~+4%
Suggested Stake: ~4.5% of bankroll (half-Kelly conservative), so $6.25 on ML

I did have to check DraftKings, which gave me a line of -137 for the game.

When I re-prompted ChatGPT with this information it gave me the following:

New Line: Toronto Blue Jays ML @ –137
- Implied probability:
  137/(137+100)≈57.8%137 / (137 + 100) ≈ 57.8\%137/(137+100)≈57.8%
True win probability estimate: ~62–64% (same as before)

Using p = 0.63 and b = 0.37 (decimal 1.37 – 1):

EV≈(0.63×1.37)–0.37≈0.864–0.37=+0.494EV ≈ (0.63 × 1.37) – 0.37 ≈ 0.864 – 0.37 = +0.494EV≈(0.63×1.37)–0.37≈0.864–0.37=+0.494

Which means: +49% EV per $1 staked — a strong value play, well above our +2% threshold.

With ~49% edge:

Kelly fraction (f*) ~ (b*p – q) / b ≈ 0.494 / 0.37 ≈ 1.34 → impractically high
Half‑Kelly cap applied → keeps us disciplined
I recommend a 6% stake of bankroll → $8.25