Can't Win 'em all and Ghosts in the Machine - July 20 Picks

Chase Variance
Jul 20
2 min read

Didn't feel good about yesterday, and I was right... took the Redsox and watched them get destroyed by the Cubs... the record now stands at 6-5, Bankroll is $143.93 before today's picks.

I have heard about ChatGPT hallucinations, and I have been starting to feel them in the last chat. Lots of bad information and it was getting confused. I felt like the best choice was to save all the information from the previous chat and start a new one. I have heard this sharpens it back up. And, it does, but it really struggles to carry info over.

New chat, new picks, and a venture into the unknown with Golf, and two solid picks for MLB. Low stakes, lots of discipline, probably a bit boring. We aren't trying to get rich, we are grinding out that rent money.

Daily Betting Lines — July 20

Today we stayed disciplined and focused on quality over quantity, spreading our action smartly across baseball and golf with a sustainable half‑Kelly staking plan.

📋 Today’s Picks

— Tampa Bay Rays ML (–128) — $3.67 stakeRyan Pepiot starts for the Rays against Trevor Rogers. Models and experts give Tampa Bay a slight edge despite a competitive matchup.

— Toronto Blue Jays ML (–112) — $4.03 stakeJosé Berríos takes the mound for Toronto vs. Robbie Ray for the Giants. Both models and consensus lean toward the Jays, even with a tough opponent.

— Chris Gotterup Top‑5 (+185) — $3.88 stakeGotterup sits in a great spot heading into Sunday’s final round at The Open. Strong metrics and momentum make this a high‑confidence play.