Back on the Winning Side. Ups and Downs, but consistency wins out

A long road can only be walked one step at a time

Two losses two days ago, one win yesterday. Bankroll is at $144.76 after the Reds win. Afternoon games are great, we know the results early, but leaves us wanting more throughout the evening. No extra bets placed though, still smarting from the $3 extra play on the Brewers. For today from ChatGPT, some Tennis and Blue Jays again:

July 24 Plays:

We’re backing two +EV plays today across MLB and tennis.

First, Blue Jays ML at +109 ($3.50 stake) offers ~+4.7% edge — model projections favor Toronto 52.5% vs the implied 47.8%, based on pitching and recent trends.

Next, Medvedev −ML –380 ($2.15) exploits his hard‑court matchup edge in Washington, projected at ~52.5% vs 53.5% implied — giving ~+2% value.

 1. Implied Probability

• Odds: –380 → Implied win probability ≈ 79.17%(Calculated as: 380 / (100 + 380) ≈ 0.7917)

🔍 2. Estimated True Win Probability

• Based on:

  • Surface (hard court dominance)

  • Opponent (Opelka: low match fitness, poor return stats)

  • Market consensus from top books and modeling sources

• Estimated true probability: ~82–84%(Fair odds range: –456 to –525)

✅ Conservative estimate: 82%

📈 3. Expected Value Calculation

Using the formula:EV = (True Prob × Payout) – (False Prob × Risk)

• Win: 0.82 × (100/380) ≈ +21.58% return

• Lose: 0.18 × 1 = –18%

• Net EV ≈ +3.58%

✔️ Result: +3.58% expected value

Total bankroll risk is ~3.6% under our half‑Kelly discipline. We only bet when the numbers line up. Bankroll: $144.76, Record: 9–8.

The pay off on Medvedev is very low, but it meets our criteria. Hopefully when the Bankroll has grown small bets (1-2%) will have a larger impact.

For now we grind, small wins add up over time!